Seminario de Riesgo, Mogens Bladt

Life insurance modeling using Matrix calculus

Mogens Bladt
University of Copenhagen

A multi-state life insurance model is described naturally in terms of the intensity matrix of an underlying (time-inhomogeneous) Markov process which specifies the dynamics for the states of an insured person. Between and at transitions, benefits and premiums are paid, defining a payment process, and the technical reserve is defined as the present value of all future payments of the contract.
We present a new matrix-oriented approach, based on general reward considerations for Markov jump processes. The matrix approach provides a general framework for effortlessly setting up general and even complex multi-state models, where moments of all orders are then expressed explicitly in terms of so-called product integrals of certain matrices.
Classical results of Thiele and Hattendorff may be retrieved immediately from the matrix formulae. As a main application, methods for obtaining distributions and related properties of interest (e.g. quantiles or survival functions) of the future payments are presented from both a theoretical and practical point of view, employing Laplace transforms and methods involving orthogonal polynomials.